The SETI Institute (Search for Extra-Terrestrial
Intelligence; SETI rhymes with Betty) is an intriguing idea. It is based on the
notion that the mathematical probability of intelligent life existing elsewhere
in the universe is high enough that such a search is justified. The question of
whether we have the technology to discover such life is another matter. As it
stands now, our technology allows us only to detect that life (if it exists) through
the reception of radio waves:
Within the limits of our existing technology, any practical search for distant intelligent life must necessarily be a search for some manifestation of a distant technology. In each of its last four decadal reviews, the National Research Council has emphasized the relevance and importance of searching for evidence of the electromagnetic signature of distant civilizations. -- SETI Institute
The Drake Equation, developed by Frank Drake, which he presented in 1961, serves as a benchmark formula to estimate the number of likely intelligent civilizations that might be out there. For those who are mathematically inclined the equation is in this footnote.[1]
Having written Broca’s Brain in 1974, Carl Sagan would have been aware of the equation, and I assume his remarks in that book about the calculated figure are based on it:
When we do the arithmetic, the sorts of numbers we come up with are, characteristically, around a million technical civilizations [in our galaxy]. A million civilizations is a breathtakingly large number, and it is exhilarating to imagine the diversity, lifestyles, and commerce of those million worlds. But the Milky Way Galaxy contains some 250 billion stars, and even with a million civilizations, less than one star in 200,000 would have a planet inhabited by an advanced civilization. -- Broca’s Brain, p 315.
As a Christian, I am intrigued by the notion of extra-terrestrial
intelligence. Not dog-like or chimpanzee-like intelligence, but the kind that one would find in a civilization that has language and
technology. Sagan and SETI contemplate the existence of such civilizations based on
an evolutionary world-view:
How many planets exists that might support life? Indeed, what is required for life to exist? How does life start? How does it evolve, and what fabulous creatures can evolution produce? How often do intelligent creatures appear in the giant tapestry of life? It is exactly these questions that are being addressed by the scientists of the Carl Sagan Center for the Study of Life in the Universe.
The estimated appearance of such life is grounded in an evolutionary
colored formula of probability that by necessity must ignore the real Origin of
Life, i.e., the very first moment that anything existed in which life could
supposedly evolve. The probability is exactly zero seeing that the Origin we
are talking about here is the coming into existence of something out of
nothing, which, logically and naturally speaking, is impossible. So the Drake
Equation and Sagan’s estimates assume the existence of something already there.
They also assume that life arises, evolves, and reaches a point in which it
becomes self-aware, intelligent, and technologically savvy.
Setting aside the question of whether it is legitimate to
ignore such a profound and basic matter as the Origin of Life, and whether
the evolutionary qualifications of the formula are sound, the idea of probability is striking. From a Christian world-view, probability is
something that is built into the nature of things. The probability of flipping
a coin with the predicted result of tails coming up one hundred times in a row
is the same as any other pattern for a hundred flips. It is a mathematical
phenomenon and mathematics are as much the creation of God as anything else. I
suspect that the probability of tails showing up a hundred times in a row just one time over
a million tries could be determined. Likewise, over ten million, or a hundred
million, or two-hundred million. In each case, the probability would be higher
than before. If we consider these probabilities Biblically, they are there
because God built them into the creation. To refine the point, they are there
for a purpose, for God does not do anything that does not have a purpose to
accomplish all his holy will (Eph 1:11) and to bring glory to him in the end
(John 11:4; 1 Cor 10:31; 2 Cor 1:20).
There is absolutely nothing in the Bible that
speaks of or even hints that there are extra-terrestrials out there. One
far-fetched interpretation, which I heard once, involved the parable of the
lost sheep. It took the ninety-nine sheep to represent this world and the one
sheep that was lost to represent another world. It is loaded with problems of
internal consistency not to mention complete ignorance of the textual and
theological context of the parable.
If I were to look for a hint that God might have
extra-terrestrials in mind, I would look to what the Scriptures say about the
eschatological future, which is little in comparison to what it says of the
pre-eschatological present. The fact that saints shall reign with Christ (2 Tim 2:12; Rev 22:5) might
imply a cosmic reign that will take place in galaxies throughout the universe.
Imagine having a whole galaxy to rule! For arguments sake, let’s assume that
our reign will involve galactic oversight. Would the intelligent beings in our
galaxy be new with the new creation (2 Peter 3:10-13)? That is, does their
existence depend on the renewal of the creation? If so, they do not exist now. We know that they would be righteous and holy servants of God since
no sin will exist then. However, looking to the future does not help us with the present
except to say that if they might exist then (because God deems it to be good),
they might exist now (for the same reason).
If we just look at the way God does things in terms of
probability, it is a legitimate question to ask how probable it is that God has
created other intelligent civilizations out there. I think the answer would
have to be that it is probable. Perhaps, highly probable. If the Drake Equation
with all of its added evolutionary baggage finds it probable for one star in
two-hundred thousand in our galaxy alone to be suitable for life (meaning life
as we know it on our planet), what are the odds if we take that baggage away?
Assuming an unencumbered Drake’s Equation has merit and
validity, we are faced with an even bigger question. The creation in its
present state is groaning under the curse of Adam’s sin and is awaiting the day
of redemption – the revelation of the saints in glory (Rom 8:18-22). Assuming
there are intelligent civilizations out there, they are civilizations that exist
in a cursed universe. The bigger question is this, Are they God-lovers or
God-haters? If they have been made in God’s image as we are, they would be under
a divinely stipulated set of commandments as the human race is. Presumably those commandments are similar to our ten commandments. Idolatry, murder, lying, cheating, coveting and such would definitely be off the table because they are inherently contrary to the nature of God. The Sabbath? Perhaps not a requirement but something like it. Have the extra-terrestrials kept
those commandments or broken them? If they have kept them, what is it like for
unfallen image-bearers to live in a cursed creation? If they have broken them,
what hope do they have for redemption?
All of this is speculative. These are not the kinds of
questions that theologians are occupied with (thankfully). But they are the kind that
Christian writers of speculative fiction are. They open up a wealth of fiction
opportunities, because they are questions that reside within a legitimate
Biblical world-view. And because of that, such speculative fiction can bring
out profound truths about God and his redemptive purposes in Christ.
Where,
N = The number of
civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
R* =The rate of
formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The
fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number
of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The
fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The
fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The
fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable
signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such
civilizations release detectable signals into space.
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